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Jan 06, 202409:01 AM
Where will the money flow in 2024? Equity, Gold, or Bonds?
By Amit Pabari Reflecting on the year 2023, global equity markets experienced significant success, demonstrating impressive performance. Similarly, commodities, including gold and various others, also witnessed robust returns. As we anticipate 2024, characterized by potential challenges for equity returns, gold and bond is foreseen to continue its ascent, maintaining its upward trajectory in the coming
Jan 05, 202410:01 AM
New Year, New Rhythms: The rupee’s destiny to 82.50 amid RBI’s tactical moves and liquidity challenges
After a steadfast three-month span with a narrow range of approximately 40 paise, the Rupee last month surpassed the 83 level, a level last touched in August. Despite an inability to sustain near 82.90, the Rupee experienced heightened volatility, a result of the RBI deliberately permitting a deviation from the established range. As there was a dollar and Rupee liquidity
Dec 07, 202310:12 AM
Economic Times- Is the December policy setting the stage for the roadmap ahead in 2024?
In 2023, central banks slowed their rate hike momentum due to declining inflationary pressures. Despite a gradual easing in core inflation, five major central banks collectively implemented eight 25-basis-point rate hikes and four 50-basis-point rate hikes in the first half of the year. However, the pace slowed in the second half, with only four 25-basis-point
Oct 18, 202301:10 PM
Changing dynamics – The fate of currencies in the hands of macros and Geo-politics!
By Amit Pabari Market sentiment turned fragile following clashes between Israeli forces and Hamas over the past few days and the complex dynamics of risk aversion are expected to play out in the currency space with DXY remaining uplifted being the rise in overall safe haven demand. However, as long as the conflict remains contained
Sep 12, 202307:09 AM
The unseen bull run is brewing in lull – Gold set for $2300?
Agriculture remains a key driver of gold demand in India, and Rural India, where approximately 65% of the population resides is heavily dependent on agriculture. By Amit Pabari One might think that the past year has been dull for the gold bulls as post touching its all-time high of $2070/oz in March 2022, the Gold
Aug 16, 202311:08 AM
US Dollar index at crossroads: Will it ascend to 105 or descend to 100?
Experience suggests that things go wrong when it is least expected. Remember Murphy’s Law. It was least expected that the US Dollar index would give a breakdown on the chart below strong support of 100.50. And onto it, it was again least expected that the breakdown will be a false one. As the pair bottomed
Aug 10, 202309:08 AM
Rupee’s downturn: A result of persistent global risk aversion or just a false alarm?
By Amit Pabari Amid the rise in global risk aversion, the Rupee experienced a wild swing from Rs 81.70 to Rs 82.70 within weeks’ time due to the increase. Well, sudden depreciation in the local currency would have kept markets wondering if it is temporary or not. Well before that, let’s understand what led to
Jul 19, 202306:07 AM
Is dollar-rupee eyeing a breakdown below 81.50?
In 2022, we had seen multi-year high volatility due to rising geopolitical tension after the Russia-Ukraine war and central bankers’ tightening spree to get the upper hand in their battle against inflation. As a result of the double whammy impact of geopolitical tension and higher borrowing cost, the USD being a global cycle currency traded
Jul 11, 202308:07 AM
Carry Trades, a blessing in disguise or curse: Impact on Asia’s biggest economy’s currencies, Yuan, Yen
By Amit Pabari- They say, “Buy low, sell high” and that’s what is the rule for carry trades too. Typically, the carry strategy involves borrowing a low-interest-rate currency and converting the borrowed amount into another currency offering higher interest rates. The Math To simplify, how would you feel if you get to borrow money at
Jun 27, 202309:06 AM
Will USD jump off the cliff or will it build new wings?
If you google “why communication is important”, then it answers that – By delivering messages clearly, there is no room for misunderstanding or alteration of messages, which decreases the potential for conflict. Well! Last week was the perfect example of a central banker’s communication to the market, where ‘Fed’s hawkish pause with ambiguity’ and ‘ECB’s